All readers of this blog have surely already read the public letter sent yesterday by Fr. Davide Pagliarani, superior of the SSPX, to Cardinal Víctor Fernández, in which, rejecting dialogue with Rome, he announces that episcopal consecrations will proceed without fail on July 1st. It is at least curious that the letter maintains that the Vatican did not accept the suggestion of holding a theological dialogue in 2019, and when the Vatican finally accepts such a dialogue, the offer is rejected because reaching an agreement is deemed impossible. In other words, in 2019 dialogue and an agreement were possible, but in 2026 neither is feasible. The reason, of course, is the pressure regarding excommunications; Rome, for its part, could cite the pressure regarding consecrations.
Alea jacta est? (Is the die cast?) It would seem so, but there is still time until July, and the Holy Spirit, encouraged by the prayers of all of us, and of tens of thousands of faithful of the Church - whether they are from the SSPX or not - may have some surprise in store for us, as the Deceased liked to say.
I'm not going to try to predict the surprises of the Spirit, but I see at least three possibilities:
I'm not going to try to predict the surprises of the Spirit, but I see at least three possibilities:
I. Pope Leo XIII received Father Pagliarani in a private audience, and they reached some kind of agreement that satisfied both parties. In my opinion, this would be the best solution, but it seems to me the most difficult: for Rome, because it would show weakness; for the SSPX, because it would face certain fragmentation, since their ranks are already more than divided.
II. The bishops of the Society consecrate new bishops, and Pope Leo and the Vatican remain silent . This would surely be the option Pope Francis would have chosen. An army of neoconservatives would, of course, rise up to say that there's no need to say anything, since these are automatic excommunications (latae sententiae) , and their official promulgation isn't necessary. They would also add the label of schismatics. The priests and faithful of the Society would continue as before, with a few losses here and there, but not much more than that. Time would do its work, and the Blessed Virgin Mary hers, and in a few years everything could be resolved peacefully. I don't think this is improbable, since I don't believe the Pope would be interested in beginning his pontificate by excommunicating seven bishops.
III. The bishops of the SSPX consecrate new bishops, and the Vatican issues a document ratifying the excommunications and explicitly speaking of schism. At the same time, it favors the celebration of the Traditional Latin Mass, rendering Traditionis Custodes ineffective through some legal artifice . This would be the option favored by John Paul II, and painful for the Society, because it would surely produce a strong internal division and the separation of a more or less significant group of priests and faithful (the districts in Germany and the United States are very unhappy with the decision made by the Council). It would also be painful for the Church, because it would reopen a wound among its members. Furthermore, I believe it would be a point of no return for the SSPX, as it would be definitively seen as a group separated from the body of the Church. And there are many examples of how such groups end up. Personally, it would not only be painful but heartbreaking. I have many very good friends in the Fraternity, whom I love with the love that Our Lord taught us to have for our neighbors, and it is not only that this friendship could be damaged in some cases, but that they will be treated like dogs as happened in 1988. For a large part of the world, in the Church where everyone is welcome, they will be the only ones left out, and their pain will be my pain.
Some might say that a variant of the third possibility could emerge, in which there would be no relaxation whatsoever regarding the celebration of the traditional liturgy. It's possible, but I find it difficult; the traditional Mass, Ecclesia Dei , to put it simply, is much stronger than it was in the 1980s, and I would venture to say that in many parts of the world, it is much stronger than before Traditionis Custodes . It cannot be erased with a stroke of the pen unless Leo opts for a final solution in the Hitlerian style, which seems highly improbable to me.
